Today's Retail Sales number was expected to only show a 0.2% increase from last month, but instead, it up with 0.6% increase, which is the same upward trajectory as we saw…
jeremySeptember 16, 2025
The Strait and the Rollercoaster
These last few weeks, the drumbeat of incoming economic data has become inconsequential, having been eclipsed by the deluge of…
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We've got a 94.7% chance of a 1/4% rate cut by the Fed next week. It's not 100% because there's a 5.3% chance that the fed will cut 1/2%. This…
jeremySeptember 12, 2025
The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Jobs Report this morning showed that there were only 22,000 new jobs created last month (in the entire country). That's roughly only 40% of the…
jeremySeptember 5, 2025
The first labor market report of the week/month was published today showing 7.38 million new job openings, which was more than the 7.18 million expected and also higher than the…
jeremySeptember 3, 2025
The US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled that Trump's use of IEEPA to impose tariffs on imports was likely unlawful. The IEEPA was enacted in 1977 to…
jeremySeptember 2, 2025
Terrific"Quite curious" I said out loud to myself as I sat in the gravel on the side of the road. I was staring at the empty water bottle cage on…
jeremyAugust 29, 2025
The first graph is a 60 year history of the correlation between the Fed funds rate and the 30 year mortgage. You can see they move fairly similarly, but not necessarily…
jeremyAugust 26, 2025
The economic summit in Jackson Hole is in full swing, and the world awaits Jerome Powell's speech tomorrow morning. A few Fed members spoke out today saying that inflation…
jeremyAugust 21, 2025
The July Fed minutes, which will be released during lunchtime today, will likely be overshadowed by Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech on Friday. Nevertheless, the verbiage may offer clues on…
jeremyAugust 20, 2025
Scott Bezzant, the Treasury Secretary, has narrowed down the candidates for next Fed Chair to a group of 11. He will begin interviewing them over the next month and then…
jeremyAugust 19, 2025
Jerome Powell and FOMC posse will be rolling into Jackson hole on Wednesday for the annual summit. Mr. Powell will address all the cowboys and girls in attendance and all…
jeremyAugust 18, 2025
Several non-voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee spoke out this morning in opposition to the Fed's current stance of holding interest rates steady. One Governor said she would…
jeremyAugust 6, 2025
This graphic shows how home prices have increased 40% faster than wages over the last 40 years. Today's Cotality Price Index reports that home prices are up 0.1% from 30 days…
jeremyAugust 5, 2025
The official jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics came in today showing that there were 73,000 new jobs created last month. This was lower than the 110,000 jobs…
jeremyAugust 1, 2025