Today the stock market index is at another all-time-high, while at the same time we learned that 236,000 people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time; that’s an 18% increase from last month. And yesterday Jerome Powell reaffirmed that our economy is losing 20,000 jobs per month.
The juxtaposition of rallying stocks and growing unemployment is too glaring to ignore. I don’t know what this next market correction will look like, but it’s statistically certain.
Fed rate cuts combined with unmoderated inflation data is widening the gap in the 2/10 spread. The dis-inverting of these two indices and widening spread between them is a harbinger of an economic slowdown. Based on the trajectory of the green line approaching the gray bars in the graph below, I think that recession is nearly upon us. And that will bring with it lower long term interest rates. 
