These last few weeks, the drumbeat of incoming economic data has become inconsequential, having been eclipsed by the deluge of nail biting soundbites from the Middle-East.
The sudden scarcity of oil-filled barrels and the thought that they may not find their way into our SUV’s caused a bit of panic in the commodities market, sending oil prices soaring 87.9% over a ten day period. Beyond the price we pay at the pump, petrochemicals are a fundamental building block of 96% of manufactured goods. And we consume a lot of manufactured goods.
What’s interesting if not downright scary is the magnitude and velocity with which the fear of inflation skyrocketed mortgage rates over the same ten day period—and then whipsawed downward as the markets were suddenly gripped by the terror of a recession. But as of this morning, the Strait of Hormuz has been declared officially open for the duration of the ceasefire. So the rollercoaster should slow down, but only for a few more days.
