The ADP national employment report came out this morning showing 42,000 new jobs created this last week. The previous week's report was a -32,000 jobs, so the labor market had a…

Late car payments are on the rise.  Pulling those numbers skyward are the delinquencies on subprime auto loans, which have risen 200% over the last four years to an all-time high. Delinquency…

Jerome "The Hawk" Powell drives himself to the concluding day of the penultimate FOMC meeting for the year.  The fog outside has him in a bad mood. He wonders how he…

It's Fed day and it's almost a certainty that Jerome Powell will announce a quarter percent drop in the overnight rate. That directly lowers the interest rates on HELOC, credit cards,…

The Federal Open Market Committee starts their two day meeting this morning. At the conclusion of the meeting tomorrow at 12:15 our time, we expect with a 97.8% certainty to…

According to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the United States in China are reaching a peace accord where the United States is withdrawing the 100% tariff from Chinese goods in exchange…

Well, the skeleton crew from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (or was it one employee dressed as a skeleton to hide his/her identity?) showed up for work this week, unpaid, and produced…

Still no released economic data out of the Fed's, but we're assured that someone at the BLS is conjuring up a CPI report to be released this Friday.  Given that…

The graph below shows the relative correlation of oil prices and mortgage interest rates. You can see that oil prices are much more volatile than mortgage interest rates, and occasionally their…

  The stock market is still at the top of all-time highs, but flat so far this morning. Bonds are also relatively unchanged today, with MBS up 4 bps, and…

With the government shut down, the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not publish their monthly jobs report today. That's the first time that's happened since January 2019. Consequently, economist are…

It's getting to be that lovely time of year again!  The leaves begin to turn a stunning shade of orange.  The mornings are crisp and you can leave your windows…

Economists are continuing to question the validity of the historical economic reports which have been used for decades to forecast the future of the financial markets. The Chicago Fed just…

The Conference Board, which is a think tank founded in 1916 that conducts their own research and publishes insights on worldwide economic cycles, published their Leading Economic Index today.  The report…

It's Fed day and in 90 minutes we'll hear what Jerome Powell has to say about why they cut 1/4% and what the Fed will be watching for to determine their…