I’m a pretty positive person. Despite nitpicking obscure statistics hinting at the generalized health of the economy, I believe that we create our own features and as we adhere to the universal principles of industry and integrity, things can go well for us personally. So don’t think I’m a Debbie downer.
Having said that, the Continuing Jobless Claims, that is, those who receive a second, third, fourth, or 10th round of unemployment compensation, is currently at 1.94 million. That’s a little lower than last month but near the highs we’ve not seen since the height of Covid. Challenger shows that Job Cut Announcements are up 24% from 12 months ago. Additionally, hiring levels across the country are the lowest we’ve seen since 2010 (which if you remember living through, was the great recession – – brought on by the housing crisis). And even this time of year where companies are onboarding seasonal workers to get them through the Christmas rush, those plans to hire Christmas help are currently the lowest in 13 years (When we were trying to come out of the Great recession).
Now having said all that, the Unemployment Rate is still at 4.4% which is amazingly low and gives us a big buffer from anything that could be called a labor crisis. GDP, which came out again today at 3.8% YOY growth is still pretty strong. But I’ve heard from quite a few sources that there’s an ever-widening discrepancy between the have’s and the have-not’s in this country. If you’re in the stock market which is still at record highs–or Bitcoin which is off the highs but still 6X from two years ago–you’re feeling pretty flush right now. So if you skip a paycheck or two it probably wouldn’t be the end of the world since you could harvest dividends and not really bat an eyelash. Hopefully you’re in that boat.
This morning, Cotality reported that home values dropped 0.2% in October. Year-over-year, they’re calculating an increase of 1.1%–the slowest YOY growth since 2012. However, now is a fantastic time to buy because in line with Fanny, Freddie, Redfin, Zillow, Case Schiller, etc., Cotality is calculating that home prices will increase by just over 4% in 2026.
The 10 Year Treasury Bond isn’t doing us any favors and now up over 4.1%, putting upward pressure on mortgage rates.
