During his first presidency, Donald Trump rescinded the DACA/Dreamers asylum program, and banned anyone here in the U.S. under that program from obtaining a government sponsored mortgage.  This time around,…

The purchasing of durable goods that are manufactured by domestic companies are tracked monthly.  Typically, durable goods are expensive and can be expected to last for at least three years.  Anything from…

Consumer Confidence this month fell to 92.9, below the expected 94.2 and down from the last reading of 100.1.  Consumers haven't felt this hesitant to part with their money in over…

The President's plan to make America great (again) is not going to see results without a pretty nasty fight.  The announced tariffs take effect in 12 days.  Other countries don't like them, consumers…

As calculated, the Fed left their overnight rate unchanged today.  In their prepared statement they reiterated their dual mandate to keep inflation below 2.0% and maintain maximum employment for anyone…

MBS pricing continue to deteriorate, causing interest rates to rise a touch this week across the board.  There is a 99.0% probability that the FOMC will leave their overnight rate…

You know how sometimes you're just going about your daily life when you find that you're not feeling 100% yourself?  You can't quite put your finger on it, but something's off.  Do…

Yesterday the Atlanta Fed forecast that Q1 GDP would come in negative 1.5%.  This morning they revised that calculation to a negative 2.8%.   Great news for interest rates; bad news…

  A couple of really bond friendly snippets out today.  The first is a prediction by the Atlanta Fed that real GDP for Q1 2025 will drop from the last last…

You may have heard about today's shopping blackout/boycott of large retailers.  Not being an active participant in conversations raging against the machine, I was unaware of the movement until I read a…

New Home Sales dropped 25% last month.  This is a seasonally adjusted reading that can be pretty volatile, but a 25% drop is not insignificant.  The amount of skin that…

Lowering oil prices are helping interest rates drop as well.  The chart above shows how they've been moving in lock step since the first of the year, as we continue…

Last Week, Redfin published that home values increased 5.2% in 2024.  That's a higher calculation than other studies which concluded an appreciation rate somewhere in the mid 4's when looking at some…

If we look at how well we think we understand global economic policy on a scale between "I have a pretty good idea of what's going on" and "wow, I'm completely…

Mortgage backed securities are approaching the apex finale of an exciting squeeze play which will determine which way interest rates pop out of the building pressure cooker. The five month…