Scott Bezzant, the Treasury Secretary, has narrowed down the candidates for next Fed Chair to a group of 11. He will begin interviewing them over the next month and then forward the top candidates to the President who will have the final say. Based on President Trump’s outspoken criticism of the Fed currently keeping rates higher than he deems necessary, they will be looking for what we call a “Dove”. That is, a Fed Chair who is soft on inflation and will move rates lower.
Housing Permits continue trending lower, lowering almost 3% over the last 30 days and are now at the lowest reading of the year. The largest decline was in multifamily, with single-family actually rising 1/2%. Housing starts increased 5%, mostly in the multifamily category, while single-family units were near the lows of the year. Housing completions are up 6% and all marked single-family residences. The NAHB Builder Sentiment has been hovering around 32, which is well under the “I’m pleased with how business is going” quantification of 50.
Weak housing news, the expectation of the Fed solidifying the rate cut happening at the next meeting, and the probability of a shift in the sentiment of the voting FOMC members has us hoping/wagering that rates will be moving lower over the next few months.
