The economic summit in Jackson Hole is in full swing, and the world awaits Jerome Powell’s speech tomorrow morning. A few Fed members spoke out today saying that inflation is still not under control. Those hints have reduced the likelihood of a Fed cut in September to 75%. I believe that tomorrow’s speech will far outweigh today’s grumblings of the underlings. Perhaps the outspoken Fed governors are feeling slighted because they weren’t being considered for their boss’s job because of their hardline stance on inflation.
Looking at some data, we saw Existing Home Sales rise 2.3% today from last month. While transaction volume is down 28% from “normal”, the average time on market and number of months’ supply is spot on “normal” at 28 days and 4.6 months, respectively. We also got the Philly Fed Index which dropped from 15.9% last month to a -.3% this month, indicating a huge slowdown in the manufacturing sector on the East Coast.
