In the absence of the Jobs Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, economist are scrambling to procure reliable data from other sources. This week, ADP show that there were 42,000 jobs created last month, while Revelio reports that there was a net 9,000 jobs lost during the same period. While those two companies’ findings are off by over 50,000 from one another, both are abysmal compared to historic trends. For example, in 2021 through 2023, we averaged 200,000 newly created jobs each month. That number dropped in 2024 to about 144,000 new jobs each month.
Without the official report, the Fed doesn’t want overreact and change monetary policy precipitatively. The thing is, the government doesn’t have the corner on reliable data, just like they don’t 100% control what happens with long-term interest rates. The Fed’s two directives are stable prices (control inflation) and maximum employment. They have expressed great concern over inflation for the last four years and raised rates to keep prices in check. Well done.
However, this week’s ADP Report calculates an average of only 59,000 new jobs created each month so far in 2025, which is a decline of 60% from last year. And last year was a 30% drop from the year before. It doesn’t take a tweed-wearing over-educated economist to read the writing on that wall.
