The stock market is tiring of hanging on to all-time highs and taking a breather; the S&P is down 1/2% today so far. ADP is calculating that growth in the US increased 4.1% over the most recent third quarter. That’s a big rebound from the second quarter and a signal that there’s no need for the Fed to cut interest rates in December
We are currently experiencing the lowest home turnover rate in 30 years. Younger folks are pushing off the idea of purchasing a home, driving the average age of a first time homebuyer up to 40 years old. That’s 15 to 20 years worth of equity that they’re forgoing because of their skepticism. Twenty years ago the median home price in 2005 was $294,200, compared to $440,387 today.
Over the most recent three years, home sales have averaged around 4 million units per annum, which is an historically low number. This morning, the National Association of Realtors forecast a 14% increase in 2026 home sales which would surpass 4.5 million closed transactions. That’s certainly welcome news to those of us in the industry. The Housing Market Index, which last month was at 37, today popped its head up to 38.
Technically, the 10 year bond is range-bound between 4.05%–4.2%, and currently sitting at 4.13%. Tomorrow, we’ll get the Fed minutes from their last meeting. The CME group is currently forecasting 50/50 chance for a rate cut in December. Not that that affects mortgage rate. These last three cuts have had absolutely no long-term impact on mortgages.
