A couple of really bond friendly snippets out today.  The first is a prediction by the Atlanta Fed that real GDP for Q1 2025 will drop from the last last quarter’s +2.3% to a -1.5%.  The Board in Atlanta calculate that Consumer Spending has pulled back enough to send GDP into negative territory.  We’ll see if this actually plays out as forecast by the wizards in Atlanta . Remember that a recession is identified by two successive quarters of negative GDP.  Seeing Q1 in the negative certainly corroborates my own assertion that an economic slowdown is coming following the 10-2 Treasury Spread reverting to normalcy last autumn.

The second soundbite comes from the U.S. Treasury Secretary (you know, the guy whose signature appears on every single currency note issued in this country).  Secretary Scott Bessent said over the weekend that current policies on oil production and DOGE budget cuts will send inflation back down to the Fed’s 2.0% goal soon. He also said that the “housing freeze will unlock in a few weeks” which frankly seems too good to be true, but with rates coming down and the weather soon to be warming up, is completely plausible.