Last Week, Redfin published that home values increased 5.2% in 2024. That’s a higher calculation than other studies which concluded an appreciation rate somewhere in the mid 4’s when looking at some variant of the median sales price. Redfin estimated the combined value of all homes in the Unites States to be $49.2 trillion at the end of the year, an increase of $2.5 trillion during the 2024 calendar year.
When I read that report this morning my first thought way “hooray, prices are up”, and my second thought was “wait a second…only $49T?”. Don’t get me wrong, even $49 million is a lot of money, but where the national debt is now over $36T, the comparison really puts our debt load in perspective. The rising national debt is a huge factor that increases the risk of long-term debt, and more risk means higher rates.
Technically, mortgage pricing defied the odds and broke to the upside out of the squeeze play I referenced last week. I don’t know that there’s a long way to run with this move, as we’re already up against a ceiling of resistance, but we’ll take any amount of “better rates” we can get.
We’ve got GDP and PCE coming out later this week. Both are already expected to drop from the last reading.
