I just spent the last week in Florida, where my wife now wants to move. The state caught the tail end of the storm that closed down the whole east coast so the temperatures got down into the low 40’s, and the high for several days was only in the 50’s. I know that’s still better than the 30’s, but when you planned for the 70’s, anything less is torture when you only packed shorts and tee shirts. That’s why my youngest is wearing pajamas in this photo; it was the warmest thing he had. My other two children are not in the photo because they were running around Universal Studios to generate the body heat to stay alive.
I don’t bring that up to try to gain sympathy because I would imagine that just about everybody likes vacationing in the sun more than driving to work in the snow. I want to paint the picture of expectations. When the Fed raised rates last month I believe that the general population figured that the economy was on the mend and it’s nothing but roses and soft fuzzy bunnies pooping money from here through the election. It turns out that’s not the case. Retail Sales and Durable Goods Orders have been in the toilet. Stocks are still on track for their worst year in who knows how long. Those expectations of economic bliss aren’t materializing just yet and people are shivering. Just like the cold drove people away from the amusement parks which resulted in shorter lines for the rides, the big chill is pushing money into the safety of mortgages and rates are moving lower–for now.
