Congress has 44 more days to agree on a new budget and/or approve a higher debt ceiling to keep the country running on all cylinders. Stocks are mixed near neutral earnings/losses while bonds yields are trending higher. MBS pricing is down 41bps, which puts upward pressure on mortgage rates.
In the private sector, the S&P Global Composite PMI and the ISM Purchasing Managers Index both came in this morning higher than last month’s reading, but still below the positive Plimsoll line of 50, at 49.8 and 49.0, respectively. The production of goods continues to grow at a modest rate, With the huge expansion and contraction whipsaws in the demand and supply, as well as the far-slung pricing of goods over the last three years, it’s difficult to find a near-term historic baseline upon which to project forward. “Cautiously optimistic” seems the appropriate catch phrase de jour.