The Unemployment Rate ticked up to 4.2% today with only 29,000 new jobs created last month and 60,000 lost over the previous two months on technical revisions. ADP calculates 23,000 in job growth over the same period, which statistically corroborates the BLS findings. All around, the job market is very stagnant. That’s not a bad thing if you are gainfully, and happily, employed. But if not, it ain’t good.
After the weak data, interest rates are gratefully taking a pause. The Up Elevator on which they rode the entire month of September has driven mortgage rates to highs not seen since the Olympics were held in Salt Lake. That was almost a quarter century ago. For a guy in my position, that also ain’t so good.
Fortunately, the odds of another Fed rate hike later this month have flipped over that last few days, dropping from 78% to only 22% probability of a 1/4% bump. I like today’s odds much better. But I wouldn’t bet on them.
