Retail Sales rose 0.6% last month, double the 0.3% increase from the prior month. We’re all spending a little more money, which is inflationary. Additionally, the Housing Market Index increased from 37 to 44, indicating that homebuilders believe that more people will be buying new homes in the next six months.
Those two pieces of data have driven the 10 year yield back up above 4.0%, and above the 200 day moving average, which is not a good sign for lower rates moving forward.
Despite this morning’s market movement however, Atlanta Fed Chair Chris Waller said he’s confident that the Consumer Price Index will drop soon to 2.0% which will allow the FOMC to implement their forecasted three rate cuts in 2024. The markets are banking on six cuts this year. I’m old school and learned very early on “don’t fight the Fed” so I’m thinking we’ll see three. Six would be fantastic, but let’s be honest, anything will be welcome. 
