The Atlanta Fed’s third quarter GDP was published this morning at 2.8%, down from last month’s 3.0%. Additionally, the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price NSA Index (whose name gets longer and longer every year) measured a 4.2% gain in home prices from this time last year, down from 4.8% last month. The 20 City Composite dropped to 5.2% from 5.9%. The GDP and Case-Shiller reports are good news for disinflation and the future of interest rates.
On the flip side, the JOLTS report indicates a tightening in the labor market with a half million fewer job openings than were expected. Also, Consumer Confidence shot up from last month’s 99.2, past the 99.5 anticipated, and landed on a very optimistic 108.7. These factors are inflationary, leading to higher rates. In my estimation, the data at the top carry more weight than these last two. However, Bonds are still losing ground this morning and rates continue upward.
