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Statistically speaking, it’s not looking like the Fed will hike interest rates this year.  According to research done by the CME Group and published last Friday, here are the probabilities that the FOMC will raise rates at their next three meetings:

  • October 28th: 8%
  • December 15th: 37%
  • January 27th: 47%

It appears that just like every other set-in-our-ways human being here on this planet, those working in the financial sector just don’t enjoy change.  It’s easier to push for an upset three months from now than it is to want to undergo the pressures and exerted effort required of morphosis today. Does the economy need higher interest rates to sustain growth?  I think so.  Is there danger in hiking too soon?  Possibly.  Would we be better off to peel back the bandage now to let the healing begin and to stockpile ammunition for when we need it next time?  Probably.  Do I talk out of both sides of my mouth in this publication depending on the most recently published data from one of a thousand inconsequential studies/articles/surveys?  A resounding “yes”.  I, for one, embrace change. 🙂