You know how sometimes you’re just going about your daily life when you find that you’re not feeling 100% yourself? You can’t quite put your finger on it, but something’s off. Do I need a nap? Maybe something to eat or a hit of caffeine? Then the next morning you wake up and feel like you got hit by a truck. That’s been my experience this week. I’m not sure exactly where it came from but I know it’s here, and it’s pretty miserable.
I view the overall U.S. economy in similar fashion right now. For the most part, things are going pretty well; sure there’s tension in Washington and on Wall Street, but that never goes away. Disinflation is keeping price tags in check. The job market is still statistically solid, income taxes haven’t gone up for some time, and there are groceries on store shelves. All in all, our complaints are pretty petty.
And yet, not everything feels perfectly healthy. The stock market has erased six months’ gains over the course of the last few weeks. This tariff play is causing some uncertainty with foreign relations as well as wondering how the price of our goods will be impacted. Unfortunately, the outlook extending beyond my tiny viewpoint concurs: this morning’s Consumer Sentiment report shows an 11% decrease in our collective likelihood to spend money this month compared to last month. Consumers account for around 68% of the spending in this country, so if we’re not feeling like buying the stuff and doing the things, we may have a significant slowdown approaching on the horizon.
The good new is when that happens, interest rates will drop 🙂
