We’ll hear from the Fed tomorrow to get their take on current economic conditions. Meanwhile, the Chief economist of the NFIB today said that small business owners are expressing extremely low levels of confidence about the future. He cited a 29 month repression and a 50 year low outlook. That sentiment is not statistically accurate based on the job creation numbers released last week, which noted that most of the 231K newly created jobs were from small businesses. At the same time, there were only 10K job losses among small businesses. It appears that the problem at NFIB is survey sample size, or merely a matter of our entrepreneurs getting into a better headspace.
The Consumer Price Index will also be released tomorrow, which is anticipated to come in at a MOM +0.3%, keeping the YOY at +3.6%. Again I want to reiterate that Housing and Vehicle Insurance are the two categories keeping CPI elevated. If you are both car-less and home-less, your experienced inflation level would be a paltry +0.27%. Fortunately for most people, we have a roof over our heads and reliable personal transportation. A 3.7% cost increase from last year is the price we pay for living in a first world country.
