The ISM Services number retracted below 50, the baseline for growth, for the first time in two years.  One more signal of a slowing economy, that news helps disinflation settle across more sectors, and leads to lower rates.  Currently, the probability of a Fed rate cut doesn’t get over 50% until the September 18 meeting.  Recent rate moves lower have kicked the MBS pricing back up above the 200 day moving average.  Still have a way to go to conquer the 50 & 100 day MA’s.

While we’re on the subject of slowing, the official indicators of a recession have recently changed to include more data than before.  Because historic figures are backward looking, we didn’t label recessions until we were already in one.  The jury’s still unsure whether the new indicators will make that prediction more timely or more stagnated.  Time will tell.

NAR reports that nationwide MLS listings are up 5.6% over the last 30 days and up 30% over the last 12 months!  That increased supply is great for buyers as it provides greater selection and should help keep prices more level.