I heard someone say today that the Fed will continue to be “wronger for longer”.  I don’t quite possess intellect enough to mathematically formulate and then sensibly verbalize arguments to disprove the FOMC’s current strategy, so I can’t with any confidence portray myself as a Fed hater. I may however have a contrarian opinion or two after the conclusion of tomorrow’s Fed meeting and subsequent dog and pony show (don’t get your hopes up; there are never any real animals on these programs).  But at this point in time, I haven’t found data sufficient to justify a change in interest rate policy one way or the other tomorrow.

Having said that, personally, I think a surprise 1/4% drop would be amusing to see, and would go a long way in staving off the recession that’s coming. On the other hand, today’s month-over-month CPI popping up 1/10% warrants another “pause” tomorrow to give inflation more time to cool.  Statistically, 98.4% of those polled believe rates will remain unchanged; 1.6% see a 1/4% hike.  No chance of a cut.