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In 2021, 8.4% of Americans moved.  Just so we’re clear, I’m talking housing here, not kinesthetics. I’m sure that Fitbit, Garmin, and Apple have collected comprehensive data about the percentage of us who are physically active and those of us who only move to get from one screen to the next.

That 8.4% relocation rate was the lowest since 1948, which is interesting because it seemed like a buying frenzy for so long. Even with price increases, 2021 was a great year to get into a new place with interest rates at all-time lows. During 2022 while interest rates were rising, the velocity of sales dropped nationwide close to 23%. 

In Utah, the number of gross sales declined 18.8% from Nov ’21-Nov ’22 (most recent available). And while values have declined 10% from the highs of last June, they are still up 3.5% from this time last year.  Prices may see a little more give before they jump back on the appreciation train, but I’m not anticipating a collapse based on the current economic environment. If you’re looking for a house, right now is a great time to get into one while there is less competition and more inventory.

The question right now that has become more weighty than usual is “Do I want to give up my low interest rate on my current home to buy a bigger home with a higher payment”. Sure, interest rates are currently higher than they were two years ago, but they will start to settle down beginning this summer and you’ll be able to refinance to lower the payment as the financial market resoftens. Despite the high probability that the Fed will hike the overnight rate 0.25% two times over the next two months, long-term rates are actually coming down.  The inverted gap between long and short term rates that narrowed last week will widen with the next hike and come completely unhinged by March. I see a great signs for lower mortgage rates ahead!