Next Tuesday we celebrate the 241st birthday of our country. Having a holiday in the middle of the week is always kind of nice, isn’t it? Throw in some apple pie and fireworks and everybody’s happy–unless of course they are apple or sulfur intolerant. I’m sure that’s a thing for some people.
The Fed’s favorite inflation-meter du jour is the Personal Consumption Expenditures index. It tracks the price of all of the stuff we buy, including apple pie and fireworks, but it leaves out some pretty major expenses like housing and medical care (which are through the roof right now). Due to these exclusions, the PCE dropped from a 1.7% increase last month to 1.4% this month, thanks in large part to super cheap oil (and gas). It takes oil to manufacture stuff and is takes gas to ship stuff–even if you have Amazon Prime. That 1.4% is well under the Fed’s 2.0% target, and a good reason to not raise rates again for now.
More and more prognosticators are warning of an over-bought stock market and calling for a correction. So far, I don’t see it, but that’s what makes market corrections so scary, nobody sees them coming. On the bright side, if stocks drop, so will interest rates. And low interest rates make it possible to afford a more expensive home.