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Redfin reported this morning that U.S. homeowners have lost $2.3 trillion in equity since the peak last June. According to Zillow (he who shall not be named?) the combined value of all homes in the United States is $43.4 trillion.  So, if we’re attempting to keep things in perspective rather than lead with shock and awe, that’s a 5.3% decline in home values since the all-time-ever high price. Again, from the 10,000 foot level, not too shabby. 

Realistically that means that year-over-year from 12 months ago, home values are flat across the country. Utah Association of Realtors corroborates this information locally, showing that in December 2021 and December 2022 (the most recent published information), the median sales price in Utah County was $500,000–a net gain/loss of 0%. 

The National Association of Realtors Chief Economist says that Existing Home Sales, which only saw four million transactions last month (a 12 month low) should be the bottom point and volume will increase from here. 

With the stock market having sold off about 4% in the last week and bond pricing sliding down the bottom of the Bollinger band, it isn’t loco to expect interest rates to improve from here. However, we’ll see GDP out tomorrow and PCE on Friday.  Both gauges of inflation have the ability to move markets by themselves, and in tandem could really shake things up.  Our economy as a whole and the stock market in particular does not want interest rates to keep going up, but if the GDP Chain Deflator comes in higher than 4.1% and Personal Consumption Expenditures is above 4.4%, that will surely put the Fed in a position to hike when they convene again a month from today.