As I forecasted yesterday, pricing on mortgages has hit a layer of support this morning and is currently trading up 13bps. Typically when we see a swift 200 point selloff like we had the last two weeks, we’ll get a rebound (yeah you remember it right: a “dead cat bounce”) where bonds recover about half of their immediate losses before continuing onward in the longer term trend. I’d like to think that we can get that bounce over the next week and see rates improve 1/8% from where they are at today, but I can make no promises. The technical picture (illustrated in the photo above by the little guy) is at the mercy of the bigger picture–the ongoing economic recovery and the likelihood that the Fed raises rates next month (which as you can see in the analogy in the photo above is wearing a pretty serious face right now).
The Weekly Jobless Claims published today showed 267,000 newly out-of-work individuals filed for their first unemployment check this week. This is the same number we saw last week.