The Hanging Man

The DOW fell below 16,000 just after the opening bell before bouncing up a bit, though still down 200 on the day.  Mortgage Backed Securities shot up like a rocket this morning, but have since fallen down to the opening bell price creating a hanging man pattern.  It’s named for the shape of the candlestick, and also because if you bought at the high today, you just lost a lot of money in a two hour period. Scholars will tell you that the hanging man pattern is a sign of a reversal, meaning that prices will drop again and rates will go up from here.  All day long people ask me what I think is going to happen, so here’s my prognostication: I think that fundamentally the move this morning was too quick even if the Ebola virus is spreading, the EU is struggling, and Quantitative Easing is stopping–but I don’t see rates going back up tomorrow.  I still feel that stocks are overbought and overvalued, and that corporate profits are in some measure a result of low interest rates.   Consequently, when rates start to rise, profitability will shrink and stock prices will shrink further.  Fortunately for my 401(k), the subsequent selloff in stocks will flow into bonds, keeping rates from rising too rapidly.  That’s just my take. Whatever happens, today is an interesting day.