With my parents coming into town last night and Monday being Pioneer Day, I am trying to stretch this upcoming weekend into a four day celebration by working extra hard today. Hence the early delivery of this week’s commentary.
Stock indices hit more all-time-highs yesterday, and yet, interest rates haven’t seemed to notice. Typically, interest rates rise with the stock market. But the more the free market relies on sovereign intervention as normalcy, the more that pattern is disrupted, making it increasingly difficult to forecast with any degree of accuracy the future of interest rates.
That challenge is not localized to my tiny office either; faced with the challenge to liquidate $4 trillion in marketable securities, even the Federal Reserve Banks seem to be scratching their heads as to how and when to pull the drain plug. It could be as early as September, but it might not be? Across the pond, the European Central Bank President is facing similar circumstances. Mr. Draghi commented this morning that in spite of a strengthening economy, prices have flat-lined, requiring a continuing period of “highly accomodative” interest rates. So for now, we consumers continue to benefit from cheap financing.
Happy Pioneer Day!