Pricing on mortgages slips this morning to the lowest level since Christmas. The primary contributor to the deteriorating value seems to be the ADP Private Payrolls data, noting that 298,000 new jobs were created last month. That’s over 100,000 more positions than were expected. Employees aren’t working as hard as they have in the past, however: productivity increased by just 0.2% last quarter. That’s the smallest gain in six years. Although the official Jobs Report won’t be published until Friday, the ADP info seems to have been enough to start pushing interest rates up ahead of the Fed meeting next week. Fed Fund Futures show a 90% probability of a hike coming on the 15th.
More conflicting opinions out today. Stocks rallied yesterday on investor hopes that the current slowdown will spark a slew of stimulus packages and bailouts around the world to grease the wheels of international currency flow. However, private analysts and Fed Governors alike have spoken out this morning about a decreased risk of a global recession. Perhaps they too are already calculating in a little help from friends?
Ahead of Friday’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Jobs Report, the ADP Report out this morning shows 214,000 new jobs were created last month. That’s 24,000 more than expected, and 22,000 more than last month’s total. The BLS report is also anticipating 190,000 new jobs reported, which would be an improvement of 47,000 over February’s calculation.