“So you’re telling me there’s a chance…

Reasons why home loan rates should come down: New Home Sales slipped 8.6% in March. China shutting down. Oil prices have dropped 14.5% in the last few weeks. The Dow is down another 600 this morning and the S&P has lost 4.5% of its value since last Friday. The 10 Year Note has fallen 0.189% over the last three trading days. The above chart shows that mortgage pricing is once again trying to break the downward spiral its been in for the last six weeks. We tested the five year lows (or five year highs if you’re talking about the going rate) late last week and haven’t seemed to have the stamina to move lower (higher). 

Sitting on the fence: Durable Goods Orders rose 0.8% last month, which is up from the -1.7% decline the month before, but less than the 1.0% expected increase.

Reasons why rates will move higher: Case Shiller home price index shows a year-over-year rise of 20.2%, which is a new record YOY gain for Mr. Shiller and his 20 cities he tracks.  The FOMC meets next week and just about every Fed board member has commented that they are considering a 1/2 to 3/4% hike on May 4th (that’s a week from tomorrow)