Despite the look on Janet Yellen’s face in this photo, nobody should be surprised that the Fed didn’t raise interest rates yesterday. Chair Yellen commented that a slowing global economy along with continued low inflation levels were the big reasons for no change in rates. There was only a 30% probability of a rate increase yesterday, and Wall Street now prices out an 18% chance of a hike in October and a 44% likelihood that the Fed hikes their Cost of Funds Rate in December.
I am not a gambling man (which should come as a surprise to no one), but if I were, I would put my money on no rate hike until next spring. The Fed Funds Rate has been at 0% since January of 2009.