The close of business today marks the end of the first quarter of 2016. The stock market indices that were down as much as 10% a few months ago are now back in the black by about 1%. It’s quarters like this when investors look to the comfort of history, which shows that over the last 100 years, stocks have produces an annualized 10.3% return on investment.
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will be speaking later this morning, just a day ahead of the monthly Jobs Report. Mr. Evans has supported Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s accommodative position, saying that the current low level of inflation makes raising interest rates a challenge. Even if the Bureau of Labor Statistics surprises us with a number way north of the 200K expected newly created jobs tomorrow, I think that 30 year rates in the 3’s are here (dare I say it) through the election.