There is currently a likelihood of 30% that the Federal Open Market Committee will raise interest rates at their June meeting. But the Fed is figuring in a 2.9% GDP forecast for the second quarter of this year, which won’t be published until after the June FOMC meeting. The second reading of the 1st quarter was just published this morning registering 0.8% domestic growth. Will we see a 2.1% pickup over the next 33 days? As of next week, the 2nd quarter will be 2/3 of the way over and I am not feeling it so far. But I am also writing this column as the last thing I do before heading down to Lake Powell for a week, so unlike the presidents of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks and their well-versed companions, my finger isn’t exactly on the pulse of the U.S. gross domestic product calculation right now. Other than I know that we just spent a small fortune on new life vests and a few coolers full of food. Nevertheless, I wouldn’t place any money on a 30% bet.
Happy Summer Vacation! For some reason I feel like I need to go back to Target…
