Some people collect baseball cards, others prefer football cards or basketball cards. In any sport, the better the player does, the more valuable the card becomes. Kids dream of growing up and becoming just like the guy on the card. They study the stats, comparing the performance of the different seasons, and comparing the athlete’s achievements to other players in the league. And in the off season, they watch the draft and the look at trade agreements.
That’s sports, this is finance, and its infinitely more boring than baseball on TV for most people. This image right here is as close as you’ll ever get to a set of Fed trading cards. It shows the Chair, Vice Chair, Fed Governors, and the five various Bank Presidents who rotated into voting positions this year. If you are on the edge of your seat, keep reading, it gets even better. Last year the voters in the Federal Open Market Committee comprised of five doves, two centrists and three hawks. Doves are more likely to lower rates and Hawks are more likely to raise rates; Centrists of course, are in the middle. This year, two of the hawks are being swapped out for two centrists. Can you believe what you are seeing? This is incredible news! The only hawk on the FOMC is Patrick Harker, and he’s from Philly–the city that on renown for their crappy sports teams. The likelihood of interest rates going up just wend down!
So where last month the Fed committed to three rate hikes this year, and some analysts are predicting as many as four (meaning that they would raise the interest rate at half of their meetings this year), I don’t see any more that two happening in 2017. I’ve got my jersey freshly laundered and my face paint at the ready. Go Fed! Let’s see nothing happen!