Mortgage pricing slipped under the 100 day moving average yesterday. The last time that happened was October 5, and rates moved up about 1/4% over the next six weeks. Pricing has declined again this morning. Although we look at the technical picture only in the absence of “real” news (as opposed to “fake news”), movements like today have a marked impact on direction of interest rates. Evidence of economic growth (or at least the hope for growth) will be required to see interest rates move meaningfully higher from here. Such proof typically comes slowly over time. Here is today’s data:
The Producer Price Index rose 0.5% last month, to a year-over-year increase of 2.5%. Increased manufacturer’s costs do not always lead to increased consumer costs, but we’ll get that number tomorrow. Also, Initial Jobless Claims were reported at 236,000; a slight drop from last week’s 238,000. The employment picture keeps getting better.